小i導讀

2021年2月22日上午，由中國公共外交協(xié)會、北京大學和中國人民大學聯(lián)合主辦的“對話合作，管控分歧——推動中美關系重回正軌”藍廳論壇成功舉辦。國務委員兼外交部長王毅出席并發(fā)表主旨演講。北京大學校長郝平作為共同主辦方代表出席論壇開幕式并致辭。北京大學中外人文交流研究基地是本次論壇的主要承辦方之一，承接多項會議籌備工作與中外嘉賓邀請事務，并主持分論壇三“重啟人文交流”。北京大學中外人文交流研究基地多位高級顧問和學術委員受邀參加“藍廳論壇”，出席開幕式并在各分論壇發(fā)言。美國前財政部長亨利·保爾森（Henry Paulson）致辭應邀出席論壇開幕式并致辭。

以下是美國前財政部長亨利·保爾森發(fā)言的主要內(nèi)容中英文對照版，與讀者們分享。

本文約3000字，讀完約6分鐘

保爾森強調(diào)，美中關系仍然是世界上最重要的雙邊關系。但美中兩國將長期陷入戰(zhàn)略競爭，在技術、經(jīng)濟、金融、軍事和意識形態(tài)等各個領域展開全面競爭，而且兩國還將爭奪在第三國的影響力，包括主要的經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟體及“全球南方”的新興經(jīng)濟體。這構成了全球地緣政治以及國際經(jīng)濟的新背景。我們迫切需要一個新的框架來反映中國、美國和世界發(fā)生的重大變化。對此，保爾森為這場新興的美中競爭做出了三點建議：

Henry Paulson emphasizes that the United States and China continue to have the most important bilateral relationship in the world. But structural dynamics of power will ensure that US-China relations are fraught for the foreseeable future. From now on, this relationship is going to be competitive in every domain – technological, economic, financial, military, and ideological. And our nations will also compete for influence in third countries, from the major OECD economies to the emerging economies of the Global South. And it comprises the new context of global geopolitics—and of international economics. We urgently need a new framework to reflect the major changes occurring in China, the US, and the world. When Henry Paulson looks at this emerging US-China competition, he reaches three conclusions:

首先，為了最大限度地降低發(fā)生破壞性沖突的可能性，并在共同關心的領域取得進展，美國和中國必須決定如何以及在哪些領域競爭，如何避免沖突。盡可能健康的競爭，不進行不必要的對抗，符合兩國的利益。

First, to minimize the likelihood of debilitating conflict and to make progress on areas of mutual interest, the US and China must decide how and where to compete and how to avoid conflict. If we don’t, the world will be a very dangerous place. So it is in each of our interests that competition be as healthy aspossible, without unnecessary confrontation.

其次，出于對國家安全的關切，美中兩國將面臨越來越大的脫鉤壓力。以技術為例，他認為這將是美中關系向前發(fā)展的核心挑戰(zhàn)。兩國都有必要封存*高科技，以維護國家安全。但如果走得太遠，就會形成他所說的經(jīng)濟鐵幕，使供應鏈脫鉤，并在全球經(jīng)濟中建立不兼容的規(guī)則和標準，阻礙創(chuàng)新和經(jīng)濟增長。

*iGCU注：“封存”一詞英文原文為“sequester”，應譯為“隔絕”。

Second, our two nations will face increasing pressures to decouple, driven primarily by national security concerns. Take technology, for example—the area that he believes will be the core challenge in the US-China relationship moving forward. It is clear that each of our nations will, of necessity, sequester high technologies to protect our national security. But if this goes too far, it will create what's called an Economic Iron Curtain, one that decouples supply chains and erects incompatible rules and standards throughout the global economy, impeding innovation and economic growth.

第三，即便沒有合作，至少要有一定的協(xié)調(diào)，否則有些問題根本就無法緩解和解決。我們應該把重點放在一些比較容易的問題上，以建立合作勢頭和相互信任，并在此基礎上繼續(xù)前進。

Third, there are problems that we simply cannot mitigate and solve without at least some coordination, if not cooperation. Instead, we should focus on some of the easier issues to develop momentum and trust, which we can build on moving forward.

重啟美中合作的重點領域

談到美中可以立即開展合作的領域，他表示，首先希望兩國能夠達成一致，大面積取消對學生和學者交流的簽證限制，這能促進創(chuàng)新，也符合公眾利益。

另一個合作領域是阻止新冠疫情。他建議，第一步是盡可能地協(xié)調(diào)疫苗的分配，需要確保所有國家都能得到足夠數(shù)量的經(jīng)批準的有效疫苗，否則全球經(jīng)濟復蘇將減緩。

其次，兩國應該爭取在環(huán)境和氣候方面取得進展。

Talking about areas where the United States and China can cooperate immediately, Henry Paulson hopes we can agree to halt the proliferation of visa restrictions on student and scholarly exchanges that can promote innovation in the public interest.

Another obvious area for cooperation should be on stopping the pandemic. One clear first step is to coordinate – to the degree possible –on vaccination distribution. It is necessary to ensure that all countries receive approved andeffective vaccinations in adequate quantities – otherwise, it will slow down theglobal economic recovery.

the United States and China should also aim for progress on the environment and climate.

美中氣候合作前景

保爾森表示，很高興美國重新加入了《巴黎協(xié)定》，而中國的目標是到2060年實現(xiàn)碳中和，但兩國目前的行動都無法實現(xiàn)避免災難所需的全球溫控目標。如果美國和中國這兩個世界上最大的排放國以互補的方式合作，改變氣候軌跡將容易得多。

第一，美國和中國應共同努力，重新思考國際氣候治理問題。需要有懲罰力度的治理結構，正視搭便車的問題，并為遏制排放創(chuàng)造激勵措施。

第二，兩國應推動取消環(huán)境商品和服務的關稅。

第三，兩國應該共同努力，在減少新興市場包括“一帶一路 ”國家的碳排放方面取得進展，并鼓勵綠色發(fā)展的最佳實踐和最高標準。這也是他創(chuàng)立的保爾森基金會與中方密切合作制定自愿性綠色投資原則的一個領域。

第四，兩國都需要提供激勵措施，引導私營部門的資本流向減少碳排放、支持綠色發(fā)展和重視自然的創(chuàng)新解決方案。

第五，兩國應當聯(lián)合投資那些有可能幫助我們避免最不利的氣候結果、改變游戲規(guī)則的技術，哪怕這些技術在商業(yè)上沒有效益。

第六，兩國應該共同努力，在中國、美國和世界各地部署清潔技術。

Henry Paulson is pleased the US has rejoined the Paris Agreement, and that China has targeted carbon neutrality by 2060—but neither country is on track tomeeting the global temperature goals needed to avert disaster. And changing the climate trajectory will be much easier if the US and China—the world’s largest emitters—are working in complementary ways.

For one, the United States and China should work together to rethink international climate governance. Aggressive voluntary climate targets are necessary but insufficient to drive meaningful change. We instead need a structure with penalties—one that deals squarely with the problem of free-riding and creates incentives to curb emissions.

Second, the United States and China should push toward lifting tariffs on environmental goods and services.

Third, the United States and China should work together to make progress on reducing the carbon emissions in emerging markets, including in the Belt and Road countries, and encourage best practices and high standards for green development. This is an area where his Institute, the Paulson Institute, has worked closely with the Chinese on developing voluntary green investment principles.

Fourth, the United States and China each need to provide incentives to channel private sector capital into innovative solutions that reduce carbon emissions, supportgreen development and value nature.

Fifth, the United States and China should make joint investments in game-changing technologies that have the potential to help us avoid the most adverse climate outcomes, even if they are not commercially viable.

Sixth, the United States and China should work together to deploy clean technologies in China, the United States, and around the world.

更廣泛的美中經(jīng)濟關系

如果兩國關系不能取得進展，全球經(jīng)濟中最重要、增長最快、規(guī)模最大的領域將被切斷貿(mào)易和投資的通道，這對美國、中國和世界都不利。為此，保爾森建議：

近期，兩國應該全面落實第一階段的貿(mào)易協(xié)定，并開始全面的雙邊談判，重點解決市場扭曲問題，采取他所說的“定向對等” 戰(zhàn)略。重點關注對等規(guī)則、市場準入和行動，但不是建立在機械和條件反射的基礎上，而是考慮是否符合美國工人、農(nóng)民和牧場主的利益。從中國的立場來看，也要符合中國人的利益。

另外，希望兩國能夠重新建立戰(zhàn)略經(jīng)濟對話，以應對重大的長期宏觀經(jīng)濟挑戰(zhàn)，同時在更緊迫的問題上取得進展。

從長遠來看，兩國應該共同努力，更新和改進全球貿(mào)易體系，首先是改革世貿(mào)組織。

最后，美國應與主要經(jīng)濟盟友和中國合作，加強數(shù)字貿(mào)易、技術、知識產(chǎn)權、環(huán)境商品和服務的規(guī)則并使其現(xiàn)代化。

If the United States and China fail to make progress, some of the most important, fastest growing, and largest parts of the global economy will be cut off from trade and investment to the detriment of America, China, and the world. Henry Paulson suggests:

In the immediate term, the United States and China should fully implement the Phase I trade agreement, and begin comprehensive bilateral negotiations focused on addressing market distortions, with a strategy he calls “targeted reciprocity.” This is a focus on reciprocal rules, market access, and actions—not on a mechanical and reflexive basis, but in a way that makes sensefor American workers, farmers, and ranchers—and, from China’s standpoint, for Chinese.

Henry Paulson is also hopeful that the two countries can reestablish a Strategic Economic Dialogue to address major long term macroeconomic challenges, while making progress on the more immediate issues.

Over the longer term, the United States and China should work together to update and improve the global trading system, starting with fixing the WTO.

The US, working with its major economic allies and China, should strengthen and modernize rules for digital trade, technology, intellectual property, and environmental goods and services.

背景鏈接

“藍廳論壇”是中國外交部創(chuàng)建的政府、企業(yè)、學界、媒體及公眾等中外各界溝通交流的平臺，旨在為社會各界就中國外交政策等共同關心的問題進行討論建立新渠道。因定期在外交部南樓“藍廳”舉行，稱為“藍廳論壇”。

此次論壇是北京大學中外人文交流研究基地第三次參與組織北京大學與中國公共外交協(xié)會共同主辦的高級別會議，分別為：2020年7月9日，以“互相尊重，信任合作——把握中美關系的正確方向”為主題的中美智庫媒體視頻會議；2020年9月28日，以“后疫情時代的國際秩序和全球治理”為主題的第十八屆藍廳論壇；以及此次的“對話合作，管控分歧——推動中美關系重回正軌”藍廳論壇。

北京大學中外人文交流研究基地是歷次合作的主要承辦方?；厥怯山逃颗鷾试O立并由北京大學承辦的集教學科研、政策咨詢與人才培訓為一體的中國特色新型智庫。目前，基地是北大唯一一家教育部設立的人文交流綜合智庫，服務于人文交流“十大機制”，引領國內(nèi)人文交流研究的高地，統(tǒng)籌、協(xié)調(diào)和推進我國中外人文交流事業(yè)的建設。2020年1月，經(jīng)教育部審批同意，“北京大學中美人文交流研究基地”更名為“北京大學中外人文交流研究基地”（Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding，iGCU）。2020年12月，北京大學中外人文交流研究基地入選2020中國智庫索引（CTTI）來源智庫。2021年1月，北京大學中外人文交流研究基地上榜“2020亞洲大國（中國、印度、日本、韓國）百強智庫榜單”（排名第76位，在上榜的中國智庫中名列第17位）。

文章來源：保爾森基金會

原標題：《【藍廳論壇】美國前財政部長保爾森：重啟中美合作應該這樣做（中英文對照）》

閱讀原文